On March 23, US President Trump officially signed a trade memorandum with China at the White House. Trump announced on the spot that tariffs may be imposed on US $ 60 billion of Chinese exports.
Therefore, some people have suggested that it is unimaginable that such an unprecedented large-scale trade war may bring a blow to the important basic industries such as the baler industry. For example, paper packaging used in electronics, toys, footwear, etc. will all decrease as exports decrease. Therefore, the baler industry will also be affected by this. If more than 100 products like the media report are subject to tariffs, then the number of baler manufacturers that may be implicated will be more.
Then let's analyze it from several aspects. If a trade war between China and the United States really occurs, how much will it affect our baler industry?
China is currently a major exporter of wood pulp and paper. In 2017, China's double offset paper exports were 920,000 tons, accounting for 12% of the total output. The coated paper exports were 1.23 million tons, accounting for 26.8% of the total output. The volume is 530,000 tons, accounting for 8% of the total output. However, the United States has always adopted an anti-dumping policy on Chinese cultural paper, and coupled with the shipment of raw materials from Europe and the United States, the products are no longer competitive locally. The export destination of China's wood pulp paper is mainly the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Therefore, from the marginal point of view, this round of trade war has had little impact on China's wood pulp paper exports.
Cardboard corrugated paper and packaging
Everyone may have relatively big concerns in the field of packaging and corrugated cardboard because it is directly related to exports. The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2017 were 36.6 trillion yuan, and the total exports of China in 2017 were 15.33 trillion yuan. Considering that in addition to domestic consumption, the circulation of industrial products also requires corrugated packaging, so we assume that domestic consumption and overseas exports use corrugated cardboard The proportion is equal to the ratio of domestic sales to exports, approximately 30%. In 2017, China's exports to the United States accounted for approximately 20% of total exports. Therefore, the proportion of domestic containerboard corrugated paper exported to the United States is approximately 6%, and this time the United States imposed a large-scale tariff on about 60 billion US dollars of Chinese goods, accounting for approximately 14% of China's exports to the United States. The total impact of board corrugated paper is only 0.84%. This is the effect of assuming that China's exports to other countries have zero growth and domestic consumption has zero growth.
The waste paper market as a whole is stable. Even if the Sino-US trade game escalates, raw materials such as the comprehensive control of foreign waste and wood pulp imports for papermaking can also be imported from Europe and other regions. Especially in recent years, China ’s national waste paper recycling rate has continued to rise, reaching close to 48% in 2016. The substantial increase in raw materials for recycling waste paper can effectively meet domestic papermaking needs.
The recycling rate of waste paper in developed countries is generally around 75%. With the further support of national policies, the domestic waste paper recycling rate still has a lot of room to rise. In addition, the adjustment of the layout of China's paper enterprises in 2017-the right to speak for large paper mills has increased , Small and backward production capacity is delisted, providing stable waste paper raw material demand for the next step of paper recycling.
Therefore, we believe that the Sino-U.S. Trade war has little impact on the domestic baler industry, but it will bring some negative effects marginally. By increasing the foreign trade orientation of other countries and increasing domestic consumption, it can completely offset the Sino-U.S. Trade friction. Negative effects. In fact, if a trade war does occur, its impact will surely affect all industries, so there is no need to exaggerate the impact of tariffs on an industry.